by Lyman Stone (@lymanstoneky)
With fertility rates falling around the world, many leaders are looking for solutions. Is there anything that can be done to boost fertility?
For many people, the answer is, basically, no. Read any article about pronatal policy, and it will almost invariably include some comment about the negligible effects of these programs. Even here at the Institute for Family Studies, we have pointed out that the effects are pretty modest, and that cash benefits alone probably can’t get Americans back up to their desired fertility rates.
But the core thrust of this view—that pronatal policy has insignificant effects—is completely and catastrophically wrong: completely wrong, because pronatal policies have massive effects on national population trajectories; and catastrophically wrong, because defeatism about pronatalism can lead to complacency by policymakers and thus even worse outcomes.
