by Christopher Sandmann
This past summer, I heard about a new book on demographics, After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, by American economists Dean Spears and Michael Geruso. The authors suggested to me that we start a conversation about population decline (and how to reverse it). A few weeks later, I visited Chengdu, China. Asking about the political landscape in this part of the world, low fertility rates were the topic of choice in the first few conversations I had. This illustrates how informed views on demographics are simultaneously shifting in many places.
Foralongtime,lowfertilityrateswereseenasnecessaryfordevelopment.Talkofademographicdividendisstillripe.Andeconomistshadtheirowntheory: thequality-quantitytrade-off wherebythenewbornchildwouldnegativelyaffecttheiroldersiblings’lifetimeearningsbydilutinghumancapitalinvestment.It’sapersistentstoryandonethatIseewithskepticism.Iftherewasaquality-quantitytrade-off,shouldn’tonlychildrendominatefirst-bornsintermsofoutcomesasmoreresourcesareavailabletoguaranteetheirsuccessinlife?A meta-analysis�
